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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pacific esportsloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Midas Clubwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pacific esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
0%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
0%

Midas Club

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wij · 3 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Hyko · 3 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
4dr · 3 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
FCR · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 707 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 664 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
409 picks · 326 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 503 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 865 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
369 picks · 161 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
364 picks · 361 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Midas Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:35
Pacific esports 41%Midas Club 59%
The model gave 59% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Midas Club in 38:22.
Game 2prediction correct17:45
Pacific esports 41%Midas Club 59%
The model gave 59% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Midas Club in 34:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteMidas Club · 59%
Series resultMidas Club 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2