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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
paiN Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
4%96%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

paiN Gaming

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
0%
Largo
Largooften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 1 game
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Scofield · 1 game
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Parker · 1 game
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Elmisho · 1 game
0%

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 34 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 34 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 33 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 28 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 27 games
70%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 26 games
65%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 25 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 956 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 422 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
454 picks · 627 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
433 picks · 972 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 463 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 521 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
413 picks · 253 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 531 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 78%
Hero pool strength63% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
paiN Gaming 16%Aurora Gaming 84%
The model gave 84% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorParker
56% · 105 games51% · 193 games
Shadow FiendNightfall
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
48% · 440 games53% · 480 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFrank
55% · 80 games41% · 105 games
BrewmasterWs
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyScofield
45% · 467 games46% · 239 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Marci
MarciElmisho
54% · 209 games51% · 284 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct16:23
paiN Gaming 16%Aurora Gaming 84%
The model gave 84% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautParker
50% · 103 games50% · 217 games
Shadow FiendNightfall
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
SlardarDarkMago
45% · 252 games56% · 251 game
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
53% · 336 games51% · 409 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonScofield
54% · 292 games45% · 229 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroElmisho
47% · 519 games48% · 396 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 96%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2