?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

paiN Gaming

Razor
Razoroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Scofield · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 5 games
40%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Frank · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 4 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 4 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 4 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 4 games
50%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 48 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 43 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 39 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 37 games
62%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 33 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 32 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
erase · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 814 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 564 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 397 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 296 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 1035 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 672 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 598 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
354 picks · 517 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:14
paiN Gaming 44%HULIGANI 56%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWits
44% · 248 games51% · 247 games
Shadow Fiendssnovv1
Shadow Fiend
Viper
ViperDarkMago
52% · 101 game51% · 282 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Largo
LargoFrank
47% · 128 games50% · 164 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockElmisho
40% · 395 games72% · 89 games
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
42% · 150 games53% · 240 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed37:47
paiN Gaming 43%HULIGANI 57%
The model gave 57% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 1:03:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWits
49% · 177 games53% · 193 games
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
48% · 518 games57% · 668 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterFrank
48% · 238 games49% · 476 games
MarsCorrupted
Mars
Tiny
TinyScofield
45% · 619 games56% · 523 games
Shadow DemonRESPECT
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroElmisho
46% · 674 games49% · 366 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 55%
Series resultpaiN Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2