ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
paiN Gamingloss 1:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
paiN Gaming
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
Clockwerk
Scofield · 7 games
Razoroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 6 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Scofield · 6 games
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 6 games
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Xtreme Gaming
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 27 games
Warlock
xNova · 27 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 19 games
Phoenix
xNova · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
666 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
578 picks · 596 bans
Warlock
475 picks · 322 bans
Tusk
474 picks · 416 bans
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1086 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 693 bans
Shadow Fiend
390 picks · 1001 bans
Mars
383 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 51%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:30
paiN Gaming 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 53:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaWits
TinkerNothingToSay
TinyDarkMago
ClinkzAme
UnderlordFrank
MarsXxs
Nyx AssassinScofield
JakiroxNova
Shadow ShamanElmisho
Shadow Demonfy
Game 2prediction missed31:17
paiN Gaming 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendWits
Templar AssassinAme
Sand KingDarkMago
SlardarXxs
BristlebackFrank
TinyNothingToSay
RingmasterElmisho
Hoodwinkfy
ClockwerkScofield
WarlockxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2