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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
PARI PARNIwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARI PARNI

No games played over 6 months.

Rune Eaters

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 439 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
464 picks · 687 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 541 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
423 picks · 290 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 595 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 579 bans
55%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 649 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 628 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:13
PARI PARNI 30%Rune Eaters 70%
The model gave 70% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 25:46.
Game 2prediction correct29:25
PARI PARNI 30%Rune Eaters 70%
The model gave 70% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 45:21.
Game 3prediction correct38:10
PARI PARNI 30%Rune Eaters 70%
The model gave 70% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 38:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 70%
Series resultPARI PARNI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3