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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 18 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 15 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 14 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Dukalis · 14 games
71%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 13 games
54%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 15 games
53%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 15 games
87%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 673 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
419 picks · 493 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 535 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 336 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 596 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
305 picks · 683 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
PARIVISION 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNo[o]ne
49% · 76 games46% · 298 games
MorphlingSumaiL
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
55% · 140 games48% · 108 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
60% · 36 games43% · 91 game
LinaNo!ob
Lina
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
56% · 193 games46% · 138 games
Earth SpiritOmaR
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon9Class
56% · 262 games43% · 72 games
Ogre MagiKuroKy
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct38:11
PARIVISION 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 27:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
46% · 185 games44% · 46 games
Drow RangerSumaiL
Drow Ranger
Razor
RazorCrystallis
46% · 126 games50% · 221 game
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
48% · 72 games59% · 157 games
Dark SeerGH
Dark Seer
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter9Class
47% · 194 games51% · 288 games
PhoenixKuroKy
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
52% · 234 games56% · 99 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 82%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2