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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 20 games
55%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
41%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
63%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 27 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 19 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 18 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
662 picks · 755 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
539 picks · 508 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 410 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
451 picks · 309 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1108 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
396 picks · 323 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 797 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 588 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total75% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
PARIVISION 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 28:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
57% · 76 games44% · 50 games
Razorrincyq
Razor
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
50% · 297 games51% · 200 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Io
Io9Class
53% · 15 games47% · 197 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomSSS
48% · 142 gameslittle data
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
53% · 130 games49% · 213 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct35:11
PARIVISION 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSatanic
62% · 13 games58% · 143 games
Dragon Knightrincyq
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNo[o]ne
48% · 38 games63% · 97 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Rubick
Rubick9Class
44% · 90 games44% · 166 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarSSS
44% · 298 games40% · 7 games
IoGH
Io
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
50% · 179 games51% · 205 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 75%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2