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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Cobraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
41%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 20 games
75%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 19 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 19 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 19 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
76%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 15 games
73%

Team Cobra

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Elmisho · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
payk · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 3 games
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
K1 · 3 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
PiPi · 3 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
K1 · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
752 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 632 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
542 picks · 298 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
442 picks · 263 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1181 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 487 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
431 picks · 717 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 250 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength64% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:22
PARIVISION 79%Team Cobra 21%
The model gave 79% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 49:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSatanic
44% · 336 games59% · 42 games
JuggernautParker
Juggernaut
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
51% · 135 games53% · 311 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
43% · 203 games49% · 147 games
Timbersawpayk
Timbersaw
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
51% · 110 games52% · 186 games
Shadow ShamanMichael
Shadow Shaman
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
51% · 78 games52% · 176 games
DisruptorElmisho
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct26:11
PARIVISION 81%Team Cobra 19%
The model gave 81% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 24:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
49% · 231 game39% · 273 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
50% · 88 games45% · 158 games
SvenParker
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
54% · 212 games51% · 198 games
Ursapayk
Ursa
Chen
ChenDukalis
61% · 145 games54% · 28 games
Spirit BreakerElmisho
Spirit Breaker
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
50% · 204 games50% · 223 games
DisruptorMichael
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 94%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2