1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO1
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Spiritwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 11 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 10 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DM · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 9 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 28 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
Malik · 20 games
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 20 games
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
489 picks · 669 bans
Clockwerk
420 picks · 470 bans
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 538 bans
Dark Willow
333 picks · 177 bans
Dragon Knight
322 picks · 417 bans
Enchantress
321 picks · 655 bans
Batrider
304 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:36
PARIVISION 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistCrystallis
Dragon KnightSatanic
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
TimbersawMalik
UnderlordDM
Earth SpiritLarl
HoodwinkDukalis
Dark Willowrue
Gyrocopter9Class
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 53%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1