DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionPUPasika UAwin 1:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Level UPloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pasika UA
No games played over 6 months.
Level UP
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Atoufix · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
MaTson · 11 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 10 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 10 games
Tusk
Atoufix · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
MaTson · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
564 picks · 647 bans
Tusk
506 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 683 bans
Snapfire
451 picks · 166 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 530 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 203 bans
Mars
391 picks · 526 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% Pasika UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Pasika UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:12
Pasika UA 68%Level UP 32%
The model gave 68% on Pasika UA — the game was taken by Pasika UA in 35:36.
Model check result
Model favoritePasika UA · 68%
Series resultPasika UA 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1