European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Batrider
Fernans · 19 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 12 games
4Pirates
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 3 games
Muerta
ariel · 3 games
Terrorblade
Otaker · 3 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 2 games
Underlord
мистер мораль · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
ariel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
439 picks · 581 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 393 bans
Luna
327 picks · 390 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 454 bans
Enchantress
307 picks · 581 bans
Dark Willow
287 picks · 156 bans
Dragon Knight
274 picks · 328 bans
Sand King
262 picks · 772 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:40
Passion UA 52%4Pirates 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopteryowaai
PuckNattyNarwhal
Pangolierniche
MedusaOtaker
Anti-MageBatyuk
Timbersawмистер мораль
Clockwerkflacko
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
Dark WillowFernans
Lionariel
Game 2prediction correct41:15
Passion UA 50%4Pirates 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
TerrorbladeOtaker
Void Spiritniche
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
BristlebackBatyuk
InvokerNattyNarwhal
Dark WillowFernans
Muertaariel
Tuskflacko
LichPERDAN4IK
Game 3prediction correct37:21
Passion UA 51%4Pirates 49%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightyowaai
MedusaOtaker
TerrorbladeBatyuk
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
Tinyniche
Underlordмистер мораль
DoomFernans
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
Hoodwinkflacko
Lionariel
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 58%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3