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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 26 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 21 game
62%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 14 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 14 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
77%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 11 games
27%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 10 games
50%

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 11 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
not me · 11 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
579 picks · 589 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 423 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
368 picks · 370 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
367 picks · 217 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
333 picks · 703 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 846 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
310 picks · 633 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
Passion UA 58%Kalmychata 42%
The model gave 58% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 28:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBatyuk
58% · 76 games50% · 149 games
DawnbreakerWoE
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMoonlight
44% · 129 games42% · 198 games
BatriderEthereal
Batrider
Marci
MarciCrystallize
53% · 139 games46% · 98 games
AbaddonAnkou
Abaddon
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
58% · 56 games47% · 62 games
Windrangerraregods
Windranger
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
57% · 107 games
Game 2prediction missed29:43
Passion UA 55%Kalmychata 45%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCrystallize
50% · 107 games60% · 102 games
LeshracEthereal
Leshrac
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMoonlight
47% · 53 games57% · 90 games
Void SpiritWoE
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeBatyuk
44% · 57 games43% · 168 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
Warlockkreker
37% · 81 game62% · 54 games
Dazzleraregods
Dazzle
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQBFY
47% · 116 games
Game 3prediction missed17:49
Passion UA 57%Kalmychata 43%
The model gave 57% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
47% · 137 gameslittle data
NecrophosWoE
Necrophos
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoonlight
52% · 162 games51% · 251 game
Ember SpiritEthereal
Ember Spirit
Dazzle
DazzleBatyuk
54% · 43 games51% · 220 games
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
52% · 222 games47% · 371 game
Batriderraregods
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
47% · 278 games
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 65%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3