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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 20 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
82%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 21 game
62%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Copy · 14 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 13 games
62%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 12 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kaori · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
435 picks · 405 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
414 picks · 210 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 909 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 366 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
288 picks · 143 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 226 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
278 picks · 668 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
277 picks · 842 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:38
Passion UA 28%Natus Vincere 72%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 47:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
48% · 130 games55% · 201 game
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
41% · 298 games57% · 212 games
EarthshakerNiku
Earthshaker
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
37% · 101 game60% · 308 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
51% · 211 games53% · 15 games
TechiesZayac
Techies
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
47% · 101 game49% · 105 games
BaneRiddys
Bane
Game 2prediction missed40:16
Passion UA 30%Natus Vincere 70%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Passion UA in 45:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
51% · 170 games50% · 193 games
Svengotthejuice
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
48% · 283 games53% · 215 games
EarthshakerNiku
Earthshaker
Mars
MarsBatyuk
50% · 225 games53% · 327 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Silencer
Silencerkreker
51% · 163 games43% · 196 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
54% · 167 games46% · 77 games
DazzleRiddys
Dazzle
Game 3prediction correct32:45
Passion UA 27%Natus Vincere 73%
The model gave 73% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 46:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
51% · 106 games46% · 17 games
Juggernautgotthejuice
Juggernaut
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallize
47% · 85 games52% · 447 games
Storm SpiritNiku
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMoonlight
43% · 312 games44% · 221 game
Marspma
Mars
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
50% · 224 games55% · 225 games
SilencerRiddys
Silencer
Tiny
TinyQBFY
52% · 305 games57% · 122 games
BaneZayac
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 87%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3