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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 38 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 28 games
39%
Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 25 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 23 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
QBFY · 23 games
39%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 23 games
65%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Batyuk · 23 games
61%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 34 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 22 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 20 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
771 picks · 355 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
584 picks · 299 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 549 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
542 picks · 418 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
531 picks · 637 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 297 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
482 picks · 739 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 525 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total53% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:27
Passion UA 51%Pipsqueak+4 49%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 29:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzMoonlight
36% · 11 games49% · 54 games
HuskarNande
Huskar
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBatyuk
55% · 131 game51% · 87 games
PudgeCopy
Pudge
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
53% · 202 games41% · 139 games
AxePalantimos
Axe
Warlock
Warlockkreker
49% · 160 games51% · 328 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireQBFY
48% · 336 games54% · 232 games
Shadow DemonKidaro
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed35:11
Passion UA 47%Pipsqueak+4 53%
The model gave 53% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Passion UA in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordBatyuk
48% · 133 games57% · 367 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
50% · 485 games49% · 347 games
MarsPalantimos
Mars
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoonlight
50% · 335 games51% · 241 game
PhoenixCopy
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
44% · 308 games52% · 467 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
48% · 548 games51% · 387 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct9:24
Passion UA 49%Pipsqueak+4 51%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
48% · 368 games52% · 484 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomBatyuk
53% · 219 games50% · 542 games
Dragon KnightNande
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierMoonlight
48% · 415 games47% · 126 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
52% · 309 games51% · 343 games
Shadow DemonEkki
Shadow Demon
Tusk
Tuskkreker
46% · 460 games55% · 276 games
PugnaKidaro
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 53%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3