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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 39 games
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 29 games
41%
Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 25 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 24 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Batyuk · 24 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 23 games
39%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
QBFY · 23 games
39%

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 27 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 14 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Echo · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 14 games
50%
Bane
Bane
y` · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 353 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
592 picks · 297 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 546 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
547 picks · 434 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
539 picks · 649 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
503 picks · 300 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
485 picks · 747 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
472 picks · 532 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:25
Passion UA 34%Team Tidebound 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
47% · 228 games49% · 177 games
Medusashiro
Medusa
Axe
AxeBatyuk
50% · 178 games52% · 317 games
PuckEcho
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
45% · 209 games55% · 305 games
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Centaur Warrunner
Ringmaster
RingmasterQBFY
47% · 258 games50% · 199 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Warlock
Warlockkreker
49% · 313 games55% · 188 games
Pugnay`
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct18:44
Passion UA 35%Team Tidebound 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 46:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallize
52% · 123 games48% · 39 games
Anti-Mageshiro
Anti-Mage
Viper
ViperBatyuk
46% · 24 games49% · 179 games
PuckEcho
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingMoonlight
52% · 166 games46% · 169 games
Marsniu
Mars
Pugna
Pugnakreker
52% · 217 games51% · 55 games
RubickpLAnet
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
50% · 69 games53% · 157 games
Shadow Demony`
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 78%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2