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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Perrito Panzonwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Perrito Panzon

Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
K1 · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Elmisho · 3 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
K1 · 3 games
100%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Frank · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
50%

Wildcard Gaming

Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 24 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 24 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 20 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Bane
Bane
Bignum · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
YamSun · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
367 picks · 332 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
336 picks · 843 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
319 picks · 163 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
293 picks · 332 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 783 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
274 picks · 124 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
271 picks · 686 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Perrito Panzon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:33
Perrito Panzon 47%Wildcard Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 52:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
56% · 131 game51% · 155 games
EarthshakerFayde
Earthshaker
Slardar
SlardarFrank
46% · 95 games50% · 206 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPiPi
47% · 180 games54% · 222 games
Dragon KnightYamSun
Dragon Knight
Disruptor
DisruptorMoOz
49% · 190 games50% · 229 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
48% · 371 game48% · 155 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed31:31
Perrito Panzon 48%Wildcard Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 1:05:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaK1
55% · 131 game51% · 136 games
InvokerRCY
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPiPi
40% · 156 games53% · 152 games
EarthshakerFayde
Earthshaker
Underlord
UnderlordFrank
47% · 51 game52% · 231 game
Dragon KnightYamSun
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
50% · 271 game58% · 91 game
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Disruptor
DisruptorElmisho
46% · 152 games48% · 151 game
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed32:38
Perrito Panzon 45%Wildcard Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 1:16:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterK1
47% · 236 games47% · 141 game
Queen of PainYamSun
Queen of Pain
Puck
PuckPiPi
52% · 238 games51% · 319 games
Dragon KnightRCY
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
48% · 143 games55% · 94 games
UndyingFayde
Undying
Underlord
UnderlordFrank
48% · 55 games63% · 138 games
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkElmisho
41% · 164 games50% · 144 games
DisruptorBignum
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 55%
Series resultPerrito Panzon 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3