DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Perro Negrowin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Perro Negro
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Wits · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 1 game
Infamous
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
DM · 2 games
Abaddon
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
400 picks · 508 bans
Muerta
392 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
362 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 563 bans
Lion
338 picks · 162 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 406 bans
Beastmaster
326 picks · 752 bans
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 441 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Perro Negro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Perro Negro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:11
Perro Negro 53%Infamous 47%
The model gave 53% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 26:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaWits
Ember SpiritS1RENM
Magnuskendallx
Drow RangerDM
PhoenixMjz
VisageHermit
52% · 193 games
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
Game 2prediction correct38:32
Perro Negro 53%Infamous 47%
The model gave 53% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 44:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinWits
BeastmasterHermit
Dawnbreakerkendallx
WeaverDM
ChenMjz
Storm SpiritS1RENM
55% · 43 games
Ogre MagiJimmyCoff666
Model check result
Model favoritePerro Negro · 54%
Series resultPerro Negro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2