PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ssifr00loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 45 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 35 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 35 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 31 game
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
Tusk
Ekki · 29 games
sifr00
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
542 picks · 850 bans
Tusk
517 picks · 370 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 587 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 777 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 583 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 554 bans
Mars
341 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:18
Pipsqueak+4 85%sifr00 15%
The model gave 85% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 22:35.
Game 2prediction correct
Pipsqueak+4 85%sifr00 15%
The model gave 85% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 85%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2