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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 16 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 15 games
53%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 12 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 10 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Kidaro · 9 games
67%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
55%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 19 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 17 games
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
437 picks · 411 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
423 picks · 214 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 919 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 367 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
290 picks · 143 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 224 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 670 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 850 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total73% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:34
Pipsqueak+4 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNande
56% · 207 games46% · 236 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Undying
UndyingPalantimos
50% · 156 games47% · 269 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painxn丶e
46% · 244 games51% · 290 games
BatriderDaxak
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKaori
54% · 300 games49% · 170 games
SnapfireAntares
Snapfire
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
52% · 312 games48% · 254 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct11:35
Pipsqueak+4 36%Virtus.pro 64%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNande
44% · 122 games57% · 18 games
JuggernautTimado
Juggernaut
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightxn丶e
52% · 264 games53% · 308 games
BatriderDaxak
Batrider
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPalantimos
50% · 87 games56% · 289 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 228 games47% · 206 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Silencer
SilencerKidaro
47% · 132 games33% · 12 games
TechiesAntares
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 73%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2