PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPSPixel Spark Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Türkiyewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pixel Spark Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Team Türkiye
Lich
Stoic · 9 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 9 games
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 9 games
Tinysignature
G.T.I · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 6 games
Invokersignature
G.T.I · 6 games
Disruptor
Stoic · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
402 picks · 508 bans
Muerta
392 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 563 bans
Lion
338 picks · 162 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 407 bans
Beastmaster
328 picks · 754 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 446 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Türkiye
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
Pixel Spark Esports 24%Team Türkiye 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Türkiye — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 16:57.
Game 2prediction correct51:15
Pixel Spark Esports 24%Team Türkiye 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Türkiye — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 18:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Türkiye · 76%
Series resultTeam Türkiye 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2