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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimeloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Cobrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PlayTime

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 27 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolier
DarkMago · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wits · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 13 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 12 games
75%

Team Cobra

Bane
Baneoften banned
StingeR · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
StingeR · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Parker · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
471 picks · 287 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
328 picks · 133 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
327 picks · 143 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
309 picks · 454 bans
58%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
288 picks · 428 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 294 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
267 picks · 204 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
267 picks · 233 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:16
PlayTime 65%Team Cobra 35%
The model gave 65% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 1:05:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
56% · 176 games47% · 144 games
LifestealerParker
Lifestealer
Windranger
WindrangerYuma
53% · 128 games46% · 145 games
Dark SeerFrank
Dark Seer
Largo
LargoFCR
49% · 104 games46% · 19 games
Outworld DestroyerLumpy
Outworld Destroyer
Techies
TechiesElmisho
55% · 72 games46% · 210 games
MiranaStingeR
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKJ
55% · 103 games47% · 65 games
Spirit BreakerCoYoTão
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction missed22:42
PlayTime 66%Team Cobra 34%
The model gave 66% on PlayTime — the game was taken by Team Cobra in 38:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Largo
LargoFCR
54% · 197 games53% · 71 game
SvenParker
Sven
Clinkz
ClinkzYuma
60% · 98 games49% · 291 game
BeastmasterFrank
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
50% · 287 games44% · 167 games
Earth SpiritLumpy
Earth Spirit
Batrider
BatriderElmisho
53% · 179 games43% · 253 games
ClockwerkCoYoTão
Clockwerk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKJ
57% · 102 games41% · 81 game
SilencerStingeR
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed6:28
PlayTime 65%Team Cobra 35%
The model gave 65% on PlayTime — the game was taken by Team Cobra in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFCR
45% · 145 games53% · 62 games
SvenParker
Sven
Luna
LunaYuma
44% · 95 games46% · 68 games
ViperFrank
Viper
Slark
Slark4nalog
60% · 74 games57% · 267 games
Ember SpiritLumpy
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranaKJ
46% · 135 games58% · 133 games
Keeper of the LightCoYoTão
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
46% · 256 games49% · 175 games
BaneStingeR
Bane
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 75%
Series resultTeam Cobra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3