Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionPPPoison Posseloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Black Ice eSportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Poison Posse
No games played over 6 months.
Black Ice eSports
Jakirosignature
Sonic · 6 games
Dawnbreaker
Shoe · 2 games
Disruptor
Sonic · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
461 picks · 499 bans
Bane
440 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 550 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 532 bans
Storm Spirit
353 picks · 594 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 814 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 403 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Black Ice eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:35
Poison Posse 51%Black Ice eSports 49%
The model gave 51% on Poison Posse — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 22:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightITALIANO GANGSTA
GrimstrokeShoe
44% · 48 games
TinySonic
Game 2prediction missed39:15
Poison Posse 48%Black Ice eSports 52%
The model gave 52% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Poison Posse in 22:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightITALIANO GANGSTA
Shadow ShamanSonic
50% · 4 games
TechiesShoe
Game 3prediction correct51:48
Poison Posse 46%Black Ice eSports 54%
The model gave 54% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 1:09:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightITALIANO GANGSTA
EnigmaSonic
52% · 19 games
AbaddonShoe
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Ice eSports · 54%
Series resultBlack Ice eSports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3