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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lion
cml · 5 games
60%
Bane
Bane
cml · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cml · 2 games
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
cml · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Force · 2 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 18 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 11 games
55%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 10 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Hyde · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
371 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
340 picks · 122 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
271 picks · 489 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
251 picks · 341 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
250 picks · 528 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
249 picks · 419 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
243 picks · 318 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
236 picks · 488 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
Polaris Esports 37%BOOM Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreNatsumi
50% · 51 game57% · 96 games
Templar AssassinYopaj
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerMac
55% · 107 games53% · 80 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Undying
UndyingForce
41% · 43 games47% · 72 games
BatriderFbz
Batrider
Monkey King
Monkey KingBoomy
44% · 97 games59% · 76 games
TinyTims
Tiny
Clockwerk
Clockwerkcml
41% · 129 games53% · 103 games
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct30:36
Polaris Esports 37%BOOM Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
49% · 99 games45% · 78 games
BloodseekerPalos
Bloodseeker
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
54% · 160 games47% · 119 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaBoomy
53% · 149 games49% · 123 games
Death ProphetFbz
Death Prophet
Sand King
Sand KingMac
47% · 100 games52% · 171 game
PangolierTims
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorcml
58% · 73 games45% · 90 games
DisruptorSkem
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 73%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2