Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Lionsignature
cml · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Force · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Force · 7 games
Mirana
Boomy · 7 games
InterActive Philippines
Tidehunteroften banned
Kim0 · 6 games
Lion
Matt · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Luciano · 4 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Luciano · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Marb · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Luciano · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Matt · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
350 picks · 519 bans
Snapfire
314 picks · 184 bans
Bane
307 picks · 245 bans
Weaver
297 picks · 660 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 741 bans
Tidehunter
252 picks · 399 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
226 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:10
Polaris Esports 65%InterActive Philippines 35%
The model gave 65% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMac
MedusaMarb
LunaNatsumi
LeshracNishababy
MarsForce
Outworld DestroyerLuciano
WeaverBoomy
Earth SpiritMatt
Undyingcml
RubickKim0
Game 2prediction correct31:15
Polaris Esports 65%InterActive Philippines 35%
The model gave 65% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingNatsumi
LunaMarb
KunkkaMac
LinaNishababy
PangolierForce
NecrophosLuciano
GrimstrokeBoomy
Spirit BreakerMatt
Undyingcml
MarsKim0
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 76%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2