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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 18 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 15 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
PlayHard · 11 games
82%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 8 games
75%

Talon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 9 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 8 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 6 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hyde · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Fly · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
461 picks · 633 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 433 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
444 picks · 268 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 560 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 634 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
392 picks · 472 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 551 bans
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
330 picks · 652 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 73%
Hero pool strength55% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:31
Polaris Esports 64%Talon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightNatsumi
55% · 201 game50% · 143 games
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierMac
46% · 474 games51% · 197 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Visage
VisageNevermine
55% · 73 games44% · 366 games
Marskpii
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterBoomy
49% · 403 games47% · 162 games
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
53% · 283 games
BaneHyde
Bane
Game 2prediction correct36:19
Polaris Esports 63%Talon Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 42:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
44% · 75 games55% · 129 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaMac
43% · 258 games56% · 112 games
Bloodseeker23savage
Bloodseeker
Enigma
EnigmaBoomy
53% · 40 games50% · 71 game
Viperkpii
Viper
Pangolier
PangolierNevermine
51% · 361 game51% · 172 games
TinyQ
Tiny
53% · 250 games
BaneHyde
Bane
Game 3prediction missed13:33
Polaris Esports 61%Talon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNatsumi
49% · 73 games58% · 210 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMac
44% · 203 games50% · 246 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNevermine
44% · 261 game58% · 79 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeBoomy
45% · 278 games48% · 179 games
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
60% · 101 game
EnchantressHyde
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 71%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3