Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XERXIAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
Linasignature
Mac · 8 games
Marcisignature
Boomy · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 7 games
Lich
Eyyou · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
Tuskoften banned
Boomy · 5 games
Viperoften banned
Force · 5 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
409 picks · 412 bans
Tiny
389 picks · 374 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 259 bans
Mirana
296 picks · 306 bans
Treant Protector
250 picks · 301 bans
Snapfire
240 picks · 123 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
204 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 27%
Hero pool strength57% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:12
Polaris Esports 64%XERXIA 36%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 45:36.
Game 2prediction correct35:15
Polaris Esports 64%XERXIA 36%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 42:49.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2