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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Flame Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 37 games
59%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 29 games
52%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 28 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 23 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 21 game
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 20 games
65%

Flame Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Deles · 3 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 3 games
67%
Windranger
Windranger
legacy · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
634 picks · 435 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
569 picks · 315 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
484 picks · 585 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 389 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
442 picks · 655 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 529 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 1032 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
345 picks · 297 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:18
Power Rangers 77%Flame Esports 23%
The model gave 77% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 28:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
57% · 157 games49% · 363 games
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeAlberkaaa
48% · 203 games50% · 122 games
InvokerJeezy
Invoker
Slardar
Slardarnicky`cool
50% · 256 games44% · 506 games
TuskStoic
Tusk
Chen
ChenHduo
52% · 169 games
Windranger
WindrangerImmersion
54% · 206 games
Game 2prediction missed16:40
Power Rangers 76%Flame Esports 24%
The model gave 76% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Flame Esports in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTA2000
52% · 159 games47% · 352 games
Beastmasteremptiness
Beastmaster
Lycan
LycanAlberkaaa
44% · 72 games52% · 121 game
Keeper of the LightJeezy
Keeper of the Light
Snapfire
Snapfirenicky`cool
50% · 170 games52% · 239 games
ClockwerkStoic
Clockwerk
Largo
LargoHduo
47% · 78 games
Tusk
TuskImmersion
54% · 233 games
Game 3prediction correct45:19
Power Rangers 76%Flame Esports 24%
The model gave 76% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTA2000
52% · 192 games36% · 38 games
Night Stalkeremptiness
Night Stalker
Slardar
SlardarAlberkaaa
50% · 143 games52% · 311 games
SnapfireJeezy
Snapfire
Viper
Vipernicky`cool
42% · 74 games49% · 318 games
RingmasterStoic
Ringmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixImmersion
57% · 139 games
Bane
BaneHduo
60% · 119 games
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 90%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3