DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
No games played over 6 months.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 48 games
Jakirooften banned
Htrd · 43 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 36 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 25 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 24 games
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 23 games
Tiny
raregods · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 691 bans
Tusk
507 picks · 340 bans
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 661 bans
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 534 bans
Snapfire
419 picks · 145 bans
Hoodwink
402 picks · 191 bans
Mars
376 picks · 518 bans
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 510 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
Power Rangers 42%Rune Eaters 58%
The model gave 58% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkznesfeer
Phantom Assassinyowaai
TidehunterAlberkaaa
DawnbreakerAnkou
Vipernicky`cool
WindrangerEthereal
Clockwerknot me
Shadow Demonani-san
JakiroHduo
Dazzlemonodrama
Game 2prediction correct16:22
Power Rangers 43%Rune Eaters 57%
The model gave 57% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pucknicky`cool
Juggernautyowaai
Ursanesfeer
Dragon KnightEthereal
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dark Willownot me
Warlockmonodrama
JakiroHduo
Tuskani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 66%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2