European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangersloss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 33 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 29 games
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 25 games
Tusk
Immersion · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 20 games
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 20 games
Team Lynx
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 27 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 24 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 23 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 20 games
Slardarsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
504 picks · 274 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 562 bans
Jakiro
444 picks · 350 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 348 bans
Tusk
378 picks · 327 bans
Beastmaster
347 picks · 832 bans
Puck
342 picks · 839 bans
Rubick
327 picks · 174 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
Power Rangers 53%Team Lynx 47%
The model gave 53% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerTA2000
Luna7jesu
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Razormellojul
Sand Kingnicky`cool
KunkkaVladikTheHtiviy
LichHduo
Winter Wyvernkreker
WindrangerImmersion
RubickQBFY
Game 2prediction missed22:38
Power Rangers 54%Team Lynx 46%
The model gave 54% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 40:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaTA2000
Faceless Void7jesu
Huskarnicky`cool
Void Spiritmellojul
BatriderAlberkaaa
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
ChenHduo
Phoenixkreker
SnapfireImmersion
RubickQBFY
Game 3prediction missed10:26
Power Rangers 53%Team Lynx 47%
The model gave 53% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyTA2000
Sven7jesu
Vipernicky`cool
TimbersawVladikTheHtiviy
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
Ember Spiritmellojul
ChenHduo
Phoenixkreker
WindrangerImmersion
HoodwinkQBFY
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 56%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3