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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangersloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 18 games
50%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 14 games
79%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 14 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Immersion · 13 games
62%
Razor
Razorsignature
nesfeer · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 11 games
73%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 11 games
55%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Htrd · 32 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 24 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 21 game
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 19 games
37%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
585 picks · 818 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 546 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
427 picks · 394 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
424 picks · 293 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
386 picks · 1014 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 656 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 581 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 515 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:35
Power Rangers 66%Yellow Submarine 34%
The model gave 66% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendnesfeer
49% · 169 games47% · 395 games
WindrangerShigetsu
Windranger
Bristleback
BristlebackAlberkaaa
49% · 166 games50% · 102 games
HuskarRain
Huskar
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
45% · 338 games48% · 248 games
KunkkaBatyuk
Kunkka
Warlock
WarlockHduo
52% · 273 games62% · 225 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Ringmaster
RingmasterImmersion
48% · 302 games50% · 278 games
Marcinot me
Marci
Game 2prediction correct30:7
Power Rangers 66%Yellow Submarine 34%
The model gave 66% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingnesfeer
50% · 132 games50% · 135 games
KezShigetsu
Kez
Tidehunter
TidehunterAlberkaaa
50% · 188 games56% · 327 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
47% · 520 games47% · 399 games
Void SpiritRain
Void Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
49% · 531 game52% · 439 games
Shadow DemonXakoda
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixImmersion
49% · 197 games51% · 268 games
Muertanot me
Muerta
Game 3prediction missed30:34
Power Rangers 67%Yellow Submarine 33%
The model gave 67% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 49:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordAlberkaaa
55% · 169 games54% · 273 games
MuertaShigetsu
Muerta
Kez
Keznesfeer
52% · 83 games47% · 409 games
Void SpiritRain
Void Spirit
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
49% · 543 games43% · 265 games
AxeBatyuk
Axe
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanImmersion
53% · 326 games50% · 415 games
Shadow DemonXakoda
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
50% · 501 game46% · 260 games
Dark Willownot me
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 77%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3