Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Prosti Esliloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GEGMT Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Prosti Esli
No games played over 6 months.
GMT Esports
Batrideroften banned
GGwpLanaya · 1 game
Linaoften banned
GGwpLanaya · 1 game
Tusk
kickeed · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
kickeed · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
437 picks · 970 bans
Void Spirit
414 picks · 599 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 655 bans
Mars
349 picks · 614 bans
Earth Spirit
318 picks · 282 bans
Phoenix
263 picks · 368 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 175 bans
Rubick
250 picks · 166 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% GMT Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% Prosti Esli
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Prosti Esli 59%GMT Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by GMT Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteProsti Esli · 59%
Series resultGMT Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1