DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCOPPYBEBRAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 14 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 12 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 12 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 10 games
COPPYBEBRA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
404 picks · 653 bans
Lion
387 picks · 357 bans
Mars
387 picks · 619 bans
Techies
380 picks · 308 bans
Batrider
362 picks · 790 bans
Tiny
358 picks · 412 bans
Vengeful Spirit
354 picks · 355 bans
Hoodwink
336 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:3
PSG Quest 93%COPPYBEBRA 7%
The model gave 93% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 21:31.
Game 2prediction correct
PSG Quest 93%COPPYBEBRA 7%
The model gave 93% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 93%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2