ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:3series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Team Falconswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Rubick
OmaR · 35 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 34 games
Techiessignature
OmaR · 22 games
Miranasignature
OmaR · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 19 games
Naga Sirensignature
TA2000 · 18 games
Silencersignature
Kaori · 18 games
Team Falcons
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ATF · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 3 games
Wraith King
Skiter · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Sneyking · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
Cr1t- · 2 games
Svenoften banned
Skiter · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
242 picks · 289 bans
Dark Willow
241 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
232 picks · 263 bans
Phoenix
208 picks · 270 bans
Treant Protector
206 picks · 441 bans
Pangolier
201 picks · 420 bans
Earth Spirit
182 picks · 284 bans
Earthshaker
177 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:20
PSG Quest 53%Team Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 46:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenTA2000
LunaSkiter
BristlebackMalik
LinaMalr1ne
Earth SpiritNo!ob
Spirit BreakerCr1t-
Nature's ProphetKaori
Legion CommanderATF
GrimstrokeOmaR
EnchantressSneyking
Game 2prediction missed34:42
PSG Quest 54%Team Falcons 46%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:15:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaTA2000
BatriderMalr1ne
EarthshakerNo!ob
SpectreSkiter
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
BristlebackATF
Nature's ProphetKaori
Spirit BreakerCr1t-
GrimstrokeOmaR
EnchantressSneyking
Game 3prediction missed18:32
PSG Quest 54%Team Falcons 46%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 56:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaTA2000
SpectreSkiter
PangolierNo!ob
Spirit BreakerCr1t-
AxeMalik
EarthshakerMalr1ne
EnchantressKaori
RazorATF
Dark WillowOmaR
PugnaSneyking
Game 4prediction missed25:31
PSG Quest 59%Team Falcons 41%
The model gave 59% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:43.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 59%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4