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1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO1
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 0:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Virtus.prowin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 24 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malik · 19 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 18 games
44%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 30 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 23 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%
Windranger
Windranger
Squad1x · 20 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 608 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 379 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
354 picks · 133 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 451 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 160 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 587 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
307 picks · 576 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
PSG Quest 61%Virtus.pro 39%
The model gave 61% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNo!ob
51% · 99 games61% · 65 games
BroodmotherKiritych
Broodmother
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
51% · 131 game48% · 184 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTA2000
46% · 139 games51% · 71 game
UnderlordNoticed
Underlord
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOmaR
39% · 84 games59% · 77 games
PudgeAntares
Pudge
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
50% · 159 games44% · 215 games
TechiesFng
Techies
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1