Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RISE Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
RISE Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
579 picks · 385 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 514 bans
Tiny
516 picks · 429 bans
Treant Protector
402 picks · 471 bans
Mirana
372 picks · 360 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 179 bans
Clockwerk
306 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 741 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:34
PuckChamp 63%RISE Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by RISE Esports in 54:40.
Game 2prediction missed44:31
PuckChamp 63%RISE Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by RISE Esports in 53:40.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 63%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2