BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
347 picks · 320 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 274 bans
Marci
273 picks · 520 bans
Undying
251 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 533 bans
Primal Beast
225 picks · 572 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 332 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 124 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total84% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:45
PuckChamp 16%Team Spirit 84%
The model gave 84% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:28.
Game 2prediction correct18:31
PuckChamp 16%Team Spirit 84%
The model gave 84% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:12.
Game 3prediction correct39:30
PuckChamp 16%Team Spirit 84%
The model gave 84% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 84%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3