Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 22 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 15 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 13 games
Linasignature
hAze · 12 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 12 games
Viperoften banned
hAze · 12 games
Axeoften banned
laise · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 193 bans
Hoodwink
350 picks · 136 bans
Nyx Assassin
307 picks · 630 bans
Puck
301 picks · 674 bans
Ancient Apparition
290 picks · 458 bans
Mars
286 picks · 507 bans
Dragon Knight
282 picks · 354 bans
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% V-Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:2
PuckChamp 46%V-Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 29:27.
Game 2prediction correct24:9
PuckChamp 46%V-Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 26:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 54%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2