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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quantum Team

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 8 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 8 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
67%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 6 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 4 games
25%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
80%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 8 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
433 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 544 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
361 picks · 458 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
361 picks · 190 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 587 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
343 picks · 549 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
338 picks · 371 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total86% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:28
Quantum Team 28%Virtus.pro 72%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magebashka
49% · 74 games45% · 238 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusRvze
54% · 228 games55% · 149 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAnkou
42% · 157 games53% · 150 games
Primal BeastNoticed
Primal Beast
Lion
Lionkolya_kaBAN68
56% · 277 games45% · 287 games
Batriderprblms
Batrider
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFezor
48% · 133 games52% · 45 games
UndyingRein
Undying
Game 2prediction correct7:33
Quantum Team 29%Virtus.pro 71%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 19:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackAnkou
58% · 193 games41% · 180 games
GyrocopterNande
Gyrocopter
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinbashka
45% · 34 games54% · 160 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRvze
48% · 241 game47% · 16 games
AxeNoticed
Axe
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinkolya_kaBAN68
59% · 132 games50% · 144 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Lich
LichFezor
47% · 119 games48% · 219 games
ClockwerkRein
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 86%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2