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DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Y5 Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quantum Team

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fezor · 12 games
58%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 10 games
40%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 10 games
30%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 9 games
11%

Y5 Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 3 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 695 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
416 picks · 307 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 398 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
373 picks · 849 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
370 picks · 982 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
369 picks · 618 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 495 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Y5 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Quantum Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
Quantum Team 58%Y5 Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Y5 Esports in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
48% · 44 games56% · 207 games
BristlebackDominic
Bristleback
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinRvze
36% · 54 games
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAnkou
67% · 8 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFezor
37% · 101 game
Model check result
Model favoriteQuantum Team · 70%
Series resultY5 Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1