Quincy Crew vs Eternity — prediction DPC2—СА · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3

result vs prediction

Quincy Crewwin 2:1

series probability

88%12%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Eternityloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quincy Crew

No games played over 6 months.

Eternity

Bane

Jubei · 9 games

33%

Disruptor

Jubei · 7 games

14%

Ember Spiritoften banned

high_shaggy · 5 games

40%

Snapfire

Lil_Nick · 5 games

Dark Willow

Cys · 4 games

50%

Lion

Boris · 4 games

50%

Lunaoften banned

Rises · 4 games

50%

Svenoften banned

YamSun · 4 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

406 picks · 291 bans

58%

Mars

384 picks · 549 bans

49%

Snapfire

314 picks · 177 bans

45%

Weaver

303 picks · 723 bans

55%

Queen of Pain

295 picks · 356 bans

51%

Kunkka

238 picks · 410 bans

58%

Disruptor

233 picks · 156 bans

49%

Ember Spirit

233 picks · 315 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)73% vs 17%

Hero pool strength55% Quincy Crew

Head-to-head2 – 0

Model total88% Quincy Crew

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed35:13

Quincy Crew 88%Eternity 12%

The model gave 88% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Eternity in 39:49.

Game 2prediction missed24:9

Quincy Crew 88%Eternity 12%

The model gave 88% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Eternity in 25:05.

Game 3prediction missed14:28

Quincy Crew 88%Eternity 12%

The model gave 88% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Eternity in 29:07.

Model check result

Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 88%

Series resultQuincy Crew 2:1

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game0 of 3