Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:1series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Undyingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
376 picks · 276 bans
Mars
371 picks · 539 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 194 bans
Weaver
308 picks · 718 bans
Queen of Pain
271 picks · 337 bans
Ember Spirit
239 picks · 310 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 157 bans
Kunkka
227 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total72% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
Quincy Crew 28%Team Undying 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 25:57.
Game 2prediction correct11:23
Quincy Crew 28%Team Undying 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 29:37.
Game 3prediction correct24:11
Quincy Crew 28%Team Undying 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 37:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 72%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3