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ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quincy Crew

No games played over 6 months.

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 14 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 8 games
63%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 8 games
88%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fata · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Nine · 6 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Skiter · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 199 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 587 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 893 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 335 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 228 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 384 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
257 picks · 349 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:22
Quincy Crew 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:18.
Game 2prediction missed46:17
Quincy Crew 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:14.
Game 3prediction missed11:28
Quincy Crew 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 55%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3