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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravensloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Feltwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Disruptor
Disruptor
d1smar · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
TaO · 4 games
25%
Silencer
Silencer
Cara · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Cara · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaO · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaO · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 2 games
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Cara · 2 games
50%

Felt

Mirana
Mirana
solji · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 13 games
54%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
albinozebra · 7 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Lich
Lichsignature
albinozebra · 6 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
albinozebra · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
600 picks · 626 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
473 picks · 252 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
428 picks · 833 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
380 picks · 384 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 738 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
350 picks · 767 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
346 picks · 845 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 760 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ravens 42%Felt 58%
The model gave 58% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt.
Game 2prediction correct
Ravens 42%Felt 58%
The model gave 58% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt.
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 58%
Series resultFelt 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2