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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
RED PIKACHUloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GRIN esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

RED PIKACHU

No games played over 6 months.

GRIN esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 225 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 726 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 628 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 405 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 760 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 162 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 1036 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 748 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:34
RED PIKACHU 25%GRIN esports 75%
The model gave 75% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 31:43.
Game 2prediction correct41:10
RED PIKACHU 25%GRIN esports 75%
The model gave 75% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 23:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 75%
Series resultGRIN esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2