DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
REKONIX
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 3 games
Ancient Apparition
Varizh · 2 games
Hoodwink
dalul · 2 games
Lion
dalul · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Silenceroften banned
Varizh · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
TraVins · 2 games
BOOM Esports
Tiny
Tims · 20 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 16 games
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
Silenceroften banned
Jaunuel · 12 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
Mirana
Jaunuel · 11 games
Dragon Knight
Armel · 10 games
Morphlingsignature
JaCkky · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
296 picks · 723 bans
Shadow Shaman
274 picks · 176 bans
Disruptor
270 picks · 250 bans
Dawnbreaker
258 picks · 669 bans
Pugna
252 picks · 267 bans
Tusk
250 picks · 247 bans
Marci
246 picks · 666 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 31%
Hero pool strength58% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:32
REKONIX 38%BOOM Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 59:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackTraVins
UrsaJaCkky
LeshracinYourdreaM
PuckSancity
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
EnigmaJabz
Snapfiredalul
ChenNARMAN
DisruptorVarizh
TuskJhocam
Game 2prediction correct11:28
REKONIX 40%BOOM Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeTraVins
TerrorbladeJaCkky
BeastmasterinYourdreaM
MarciJabz
PangolierFbz
Ember SpiritSancity
Hoodwinkdalul
Shadow DemonJhocam
BaneVarizh
DisruptorNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2