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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
REKONIXloss 0:1
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincerewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 11 games
82%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 10 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dalul · 10 games
70%
Razor
Razorsignature
Fbz · 8 games
88%
Tiny
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
63%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 25 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
597 picks · 929 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 422 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 640 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
436 picks · 939 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 653 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 530 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 231 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:39
REKONIX 33%Natus Vincere 67%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 52:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTraVins
51% · 215 games51% · 51 game
Razorgotthejuice
Razor
Viper
ViperFbz
50% · 56 games50% · 484 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritinYourdreaM
54% · 259 games50% · 318 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
49% · 79 games53% · 32 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Tusk
Tuskdalul
45% · 310 games50% · 34 games
LargoZayac
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1