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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

REKONIX

Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 22 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
22%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 15 games
53%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 14 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
dalul · 14 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 14 games
36%

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 30 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 28 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 27 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 26 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
531 picks · 321 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 586 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 361 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
395 picks · 296 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
395 picks · 217 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 311 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 868 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 851 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:25
REKONIX 31%Xtreme Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTraVins
46% · 110 games58% · 83 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckinYourdreaM
48% · 251 game51% · 204 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Axe
AxeFbz
54% · 137 games48% · 386 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Rubick
Rubickdalul
48% · 160 games56% · 102 games
Nyx Assassinfy
Nyx Assassin
Phoenix
PhoenixVarizh
47% · 172 games47% · 55 games
LichxNova
Lich
Game 2prediction correct15:33
REKONIX 29%Xtreme Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyTraVins
52% · 229 games52% · 111 games
AlchemistAme
Alchemist
Underlord
UnderlordFbz
48% · 144 games47% · 397 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Puck
PuckinYourdreaM
52% · 267 games53% · 196 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
Rubickdalul
46% · 182 games52% · 59 games
LichxNova
Lich
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVarizh
46% · 80 games52% · 139 games
Lionfy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 83%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2