DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Rest Farmersloss 1:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 646 bans
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
Mars
379 picks · 613 bans
Techies
376 picks · 307 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 779 bans
Vengeful Spirit
350 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
346 picks · 403 bans
Hoodwink
334 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:44
Rest Farmers 26%Entity 74%
The model gave 74% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 38:56.
Game 2prediction correct18:31
Rest Farmers 26%Entity 74%
The model gave 74% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 35:13.
Game 3prediction correct47:12
Rest Farmers 26%Entity 74%
The model gave 74% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 32:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 74%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3