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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rest Farmerswin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rest Farmers

No games played over 6 months.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 22 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 18 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Bignum · 16 games
44%
Luna
Luna
Lukas · 16 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 15 games
47%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
LeBronDota · 13 games
31%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 199 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 670 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
440 picks · 838 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 590 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 179 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 625 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 678 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 297 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:25
Rest Farmers 64%MarsBet Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 35:57.
Game 2prediction missed35:33
Rest Farmers 64%MarsBet Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 54:49.
Game 3prediction missed53:17
Rest Farmers 64%MarsBet Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 43:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 64%
Series resultRest Farmers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3