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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Rest Farmerswin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rest Farmers

No games played over 6 months.

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fbz · 10 games
60%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rmN- · 7 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 7 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ghost · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
SumaiL · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 644 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 612 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
375 picks · 306 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 777 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
350 picks · 352 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
344 picks · 402 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
Rest Farmers 42%Nigma Galaxy 58%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 29:50.
Game 2prediction missed32:17
Rest Farmers 42%Nigma Galaxy 58%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 37:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 58%
Series resultRest Farmers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2